On Afghanistan

Honestly, I'm not sure where I stand on Obama's escalation plan in Afghanistan. I am very conflicted about supporting Obama on this. It isn't a surprise to me that this is Obama's plan, just a minor disappointment. Still, the worst part of this is that I'm not sure he had any choice that was better.

Simply put, the options in Afghanistan are a shit-sandwich buffet. Your only solution is to pick the most edible one, and hope it stays down. Is an immediate withdrawl the best? I'm not sure, although I am skeptical of it. I suppose I was hoping for some totally creative and awesome way out of this, but that is the worst kind of wishful thinking.

The fact is, the mess left by the previous administration is huge, and only Democrats seem willing to fix it these days. One of those messes, and arguably the biggest foreign policy mess, is Afghanistan. Had we focused our efforts on stablizing Afghanistan during the better portion of this decade instead of starting a stupid conflict two countries over, Obama most likely would not have had to deliver his speech last night. I recognize the mess we are in, and also understand the appeal and potential benefit of a stable Afghanistan.

However, when I look at Afghanistan, it is very hard to be optimistic about our chances. The forces of history are against us in this land that has stymied many empires. Granted, maybe our focused effort will be different, but I'm not so sure. The terrain, the complexities, and the downright bad feelings just seem to be far too much for me to have much hope for the success of our mission.

Despite the President's arguments to the contrary, I can't help but see the similarities between Afghanistan 2009 and Vietnam 1965. What happens if General McChrystal comes back to President Obama next year with a message that success only needs 30,000 more troops? At what point do we say enough? How can we continue to ask so much of our soldiers without a real sense of results?

What happens if we do our jobs well, but Karzai and his cronies fail miserably? Are we going to pull shit like the CIA did with the coups in South Vietnam? At best, this situation will probably end up like the DMZ in Korea. At worst will have a repeat of Saigon 1975. I hope I am wrong, but I just can't feel optimistic about that.

On top of my misgivings in regards to foreign policy, I also worry about about how this will affect the administrations domestic agenda. We have significant systemic problems that need to be taken care of here at home, and every dollar spent if Afghanistan is one less dollar we can spend on those problems. The Health Care bill is taking an incredibly long time to get through Congress, and what might eventually get passed won't exactly be our nation's greatest triumph. How can we rein in reckless financial behavior, establish a sensible and fair immigration policy, or develop real environmental pro when we are stuck in a money pit halfway around the world?

With all of these considerations in mind, I am willing to cut President Obama some slack. I really think he and his administration is trying to make the best decision possible in a bad situation, and is trying to right the wrongs of the past decade. They deserve time to try this new strategy. I can't deny the people in this administration have more information than I do, and I hope this privileged information is being used properly. If not, there will be hell to pay.

Regardless of how you feel about the decision, you must recognize the brazeness of this decision. It puts the war squarely on Obama's shoulders, and quite possibly could be the defining decision of his Presidency. I hope it will go down as the right decision. For now, I'll give the President my support, while making sure to keep a close eye on the situation. As always, it is our right to change our mind with new information or new circumstances. A stable Afghanistan is good for the world. Hopefully this will be a time for a new path in history.

Remembering the 2008 Journey: Yes We Can

A year ago tonight was a roller coaster of a night. Having paid too much attention to the talking heads, I was anticipating an Obama victory in New Hampshire, which would virtually assure his nomination. As the history would record, however, the result was much different.

Although Obama won about the same percentage of the New Hampshire vote as he was polling, Senator Clinton picked up virtually all of the undecided votes that day. Despite both candidates winning the same number of delegates, the fact Clinton won the horserace gave her campaign a much needed boost.

Before Senator Obama came out, I sat disgruntledly in my Virginia Beach apartment, wondering if Obama would even make it to my state, and wondering if he could survive the fight that would be on if he did make it to February 12. I watched glumly as Senator Clinton "found her voice", and became more worried, wondering how I would talk myself in to voting for Senator Clinton in November.

Obama's speech began innocently enough. The usual thanks to his supporters, promises for change, standard political speech stuff. It wasn't very remarkable. Until he uttered three little words.

Yes We Can

With those words, the game was changed. His defeat was nothing more than a setback, a call to action. That night I donated money to his campaign. I wasn't alone, as January 8, 2008 was a very good day for Obamas fundraising.

Although nowhere near as enjoyable as the South Carolina or the Chesapeake Primary, it was a memorable night. It showed that even though Clinton wouldn't go away easy, neither would Obama. It was the start of a long haul, and the Obama supporters showed they weren't going away.

Obama's Tax Plan

For those of you who are curious about Obama's Tax Plan, here it is in all of its details.

Simply put, this plan is far from the big bad old Marx. It gives 95% of American workers (none of those pesky "welfare queens" here) a tax cut of $500 per worker.

In addition, seniors making less than $50,000 will pay no taxes.

The big bad tax burden that supposedly is Obama's sinister plan to destroy the landed gentry? He will let the Bush tax cuts expire, moving the wealthy back up to a 39% instead of 36% tax bracket. In addition, the wealthy (to an extent) will have to pay a bit more into Social Security.

What about small business owners, like the hypothetical situation tied to Joe the fake Plumber? Remember that $250,000 figure is on net income, not gross revenue. If you take home $150,000 from your business, even though it has $2,000,000 in revenue, you still fall in to the tax bracket that will benefit. In addition, your startup or small business will not have to worry about capital gains taxes, and can benefit from tax credits for keeping employment here in the United States.

Obama's plan is sound, its equitable, and it will work. The rich will still be rich, and the rest of us might be able to find it just a little bit easier to succeed. The Obama administration would be best positioned to keep the American dream alive for all Americans, and not just those with money or connections.

On the Economy

After a discussion with a friend of mine yesterday, I got to thinking about economic politics. He was hesitant about Obama's economic plan, and I was trying to convince him of its soundness. After a while we agreed that the matter was complicated, and that something needed to be done. But before we came to that, he offered up some of the GOP's tried and true talking points.

Look, I'm a fan of the free market. For the most part it does its job well, rewarding good business activity, and punishing poor business activity. Although it has some glaring weaknesses (health care, education, environment, workers rights), it is much better than state run disasters such as the U.S.S.R.

The people of the United States like thinking this is a nation built on meritocracy, that it matters more what you do than what your father did. We have been raised to believe that with some hard  work, common sense, and a little luck and ingenuity we could succeed. 

But it is becoming harder and harder to achieve the American Dream. The discrepancy between the rich and poor has been growing steadily since the Reagan/Bush era, with only a temporary respite during the 90s. In fact, of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations, only Mexico and Turkey have a worse rich/poor discrepancy during this decade. The poor get poorer and the rich get richer, while the ever shrinking middle class struggles to hang on to what they have.

We have many issues facing our country, many problems to solve. But we will never solve them unless we move past the outmoded arguments of the past. 

Barack Obama's tax plan is a fair one. In exchange for a little higher taxes for the wealthy, 95% of the country will see their tax burden become lower. This total includes all but about 1% of small business owners, who will also see some other significant tax breaks. Joe the Plumber (who has been revealed as nothing more than a GOP shill) and his $40,000 salary would benefit significantly under Obama's plan. As the $250,000 would be net income from a small business, not revenue, it is very likely that he could still benefit once he bought his business.

In response to this, the GOP has brought out their old line of attack that has been around since at least 1980. Namely, that the poor are lazy welfare queens driving gold Cadillacs over the backs of the hard-working and earnest rich folk. This seems to play well with the low information working class voters, who have much more in common with the poor than the rich. 

The idea that there is an epidemic of women gaming the system to live high on the hog off of welfare is nothing but a urban myth. Using the obvious shortcomings of the welfare program, Reagan was able to turn people against the poor, and make them weary of any program meant to help those who live at the bottom of the economic ladder.

While there are certainly some poor people who do try to game the system (as if there aren't wealthy people who do the same thing), the vast majority of poor people are hard workers. They have to be, as the national welfare system was essentially scrapped by President Clinton and the GOP Congress in 1996. Many work two or three jobs, trying to keep up with their bills and give their children the best job possible. Despite the fact that they don't pay taxes, the extra money they will earn as a tax credit from Obama's plan could go far in feeding or clothing their children. 

So what is the solution? Clearly, the "trickle-down" philosophy of the Reagan/Bush/McCain Republicans is not working out for those on the bottom, even if it has helped those on top. Just as undesirable is a return to the bureaucratic mess that was the welfare state in the 1970s. Somehow there has to be a way we can combine the best of the free market with the best of pro-active government action. 

Whatever the solution, it is certain that Republicans and Democrats, young and old, rich and poor, should be involved. No matter our political leanings or wealth, this is our country, and it is about damn time we started taking responsibility for it.  Barack Obama has shown more promise in regards to bringing us together to solve these issues. This is one of many reasons why I am supporting him in his bid for the President of the United States.

Obama to visit his sick grandmother

Our thoughts and prayers are with Senator Obama and his family. May his grandmother recover and see her grandson be inaugurated as our 44th President.

Thoughts on the Last Debate

Overall, the debate was a good one for Obama, and not nearly enough for McCain to start any sort of rally. Senator McCain got a good line about Bush off, but Obama pivoted pretty well off of it. The William Ayers farce was handled well by Obama, and he just wailed on McCain on the health care and education topics.

Independent voters appear to agree with this, giving Obama a comfortable margin over McCain after the debate. CBS had Obama 53% to McCain 22%, and CNN had Obama over McCain 58-31.

Thus begins the last chapter of this election cycle, the last stretch to that high holy day of democracy, election day. I hope to see you along the way, adding my own thoughts as we head there.

Obama takes Montana

Despite what Senator Clinton said in her "non-concession" speech, Montana actually did have the last word. Unfortunately for her, she was not their choice.

We are waiting for Senator Obama to speak. More later. 

Hillary; maybe for you, but not for me

Editors Note: This is the first post by Erin, a new contributor to August Prairie. She'll be provided assistance on this blog as we head on through the general election. 

As Hillary's campaign (hopefully) is seeing its last few agonizing days, I'd like to put in my two cents...the one girl (am I woman now? I don't feel like it) who doesn't want to see Hillary in the White House.

Hillary and her various sycophants have chorused like clockwork that the campaign trail was biased against her because she's a woman. The argument usually goes that opinions against her must stem from the fact that simply, she has a uterus.

What isn't being recognized by her close and personal yes-men is that, frankly...she's offering nothing new in her campaign. Her gender alone appeals to feminazis, working women, and the more "conservative" (although I'm not necessarily meaning Republican) housewives. "You go, working woman!" As a female, supporting anyone else should, by sycophant logic, make me a disgrace to my gender.

Simply; she is a woman running for president. She must be revolutionary!

If gender alone was the prerequisite for one's opinion on leadership, then it wouldn't matter if it was Hillary. It could literally be any woman. Not that women haven't ran before; Hillary has one more "secret weapon".

"Experience". By which I mean, she has Bill. People know her simply because Bill was in the White House, and so some people see this as her "returning home." Granted, I was only a kid during the Clinton administration, but as far as I remember, all she did was endorse the Pizza Hut reading program on some flyer or handout I once recieved at school.

Now to tie this little roundabout post together; as much as I love Pizza Hut, I'm instead putting my trust, my hope, and my vote to Barack Obama. It's time for some new ideas and a fresh face in the White House. "He lacks experience." "He's too passive and naive." Sounds kind of familiar...lets see...I can sort of recall someone only serving one term in the House of Representatives before winning an election...hmmm....anyhow, Hillary's tired campaign of promises that everyone has heard before means nothing to me. Those who aren't looking at gender in her campaign are pulling for her because they are afraid of change. It's easy to hide behind a facade of change, even when the "new" factor is an unrelated variable such as an extra X chromosome.

Same bullcrap. Different gender. Some revolution, eh?

Vacation's Over: Almost Time for the Big Show

Tomorrow night South Dakota and Montana will be the last two states to sound off in the Democratic Primary. Although it is unlikely that Senator Clinton will concede tomorrow, Obama will likely clinch the nomination either tomorrow or Wednesday, as his pledged delegate haul from the two states and a couple dozen superdelegates will put him over the top. That which became possible with his victory in Iowa and probable with his victory in Wisconsin will finally become reality. 

However, the Democrat's marathon was just the preseason. It is time for the real show as the campaign against John McCain and the GOP machine heats up. Although this is a good year for the Democrats, it appeared that 2004 was going to be as well. This ain't the beginning of the end, but rather the end of the beginning.

From tomorrow night to November, August Prairie will be there. Expect more posts, more analysis and features, and a few other major changes. Stay tuned, and let the games begin!

My Meaningless Unscientific Oregon and Kentucky Predictions

Today will be another split decision in the seemingly unending democratic nomination race, but the bigger story will be the milestone reached by Senator Obama. Provided he gains 15-20 pledged delegates tonight (an almost assured prospect), he will clinch a victory in the pledged delegate race (at least until MI and FL are settled). Hopefully the hyperactive labrador puppies in the media will stay still long enough to see tonight for what it is. Given their track record, expect them to discount Obama's milestone and victory in Oregon in favor of Clinton's MAJOR victory in Kentucky. After all, the only states that matter in the United States are those in greater Appalachia (Except for Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia).

Oregon: Obama 55%, Clinton 45% 29-23 Pledged Delegate Count
Kentucky: Clinton 65% Obama 35% 33-18 Pledged Delegate Count

There is a lot to write about, and I am sure more after the results of tonight are known. I can't make any promises to live up to my hopes in getting stuff out there, but stay tuned.

Proof Yet Again of Obama's Viability

Senator Obama proves yet again why he isn't John Kerry or Michael Dukakis. I love his mixture of mild amusement at the hypocrisy of McCain/Bush, intelligent discussion of the facts, and a pledge to the GOP to bring on a serious foreign policy discussion.

Too bad the media will probably continue to give Senator McCain a free pass to keep yelling about the "boogeymen" who are only being held at bay by Big Papa Bush.

And Two More are Down

Obama is going to win North Carolina by a significant margin. In addition, Hillary's win in Indiana is going to be insignificant. And the last really large delegate haul is over with, with it being at best a wash for Hillary.

Needless to say, I enjoyed a nice bottle of Yuengling (even if that lousy state went to the other candidate) while watching Senator Obama gives his victory speech.

It's certainly a good day for us Obamatards, even if Senator Hillary (R-NY) will still be in this until the good people of South Dakota and Montana vote on June 3.

Economists? We don't need no stinkin' economists.

NOTE: This post has mild extreme language of the bovine manure variety. I apologize for my diversion from my usual standards, but it was certainly appropriate. If you really are offended by this language, please stop reading and go to http://www.icanhascheezburger.com. I'm sure that will be more your speed.

GIGANTIC SIGH

Hillary just won't stop will she? Either she is bullshitting about being a Super-wonk, or is bullshitting about being Hilz Six Pack. I'll bet you can't guess which one.

Maybe someday she'll collapse in a moment that will put the Dean scream or Muskie crying to shame. That would be a beautiful day, one that will mark a new (and hopefully better) chapter in our nation's politics. The Clintons will finally have been beaten, and being a progressive will no longer be a "dirty little secret". Maybe then we'll have two political parties, instead of one crazy ass party, and one trying to be a weak-ass pro-choice version of the same party.

I tried, I really tried to give her a fair shake. She has shown before she is intelligent, and does seem to care about some things. But to her power is the ends, not the means. Severely wounded by the unfortunate battles of the 90s, she has given up on the idea that there is a better way to win the presidency than roll in the muck.

Hopefully Hoosiers and Tarheels will see through her lies, refuse to submit to her ceaseless pandering. I pray that they will see how shallow and meaningless her gas tax holiday idea is, and how much contempt it shows for American voters. For once I want to believe that they will see through her crap, and see that Obama was the only one honest enough to say that a gas tax holiday is utterly worthless.

Unfortunately, I am very pessimistic about this. The reason politicians pander is because people are more than willing to swallow there crap. Until we stand up and say "NO MORE", they will continue to rely upon truthiness, false sincerity, and other disgusting Machiavellian tools of the trade.

If you truly believe in real change, in actually working to solve the issues that face our nation, you have to be willing to see through the bullshit. Hillary Clinton won't change things, and John McCain won't change things, at least if you aren't wealthy. Barack Obama is our best shot at saving this country from idiocracy and mediocrity. But he can't do it alone.

Prove me wrong, citizens of Charlotte and Evansville. Show me the errors of my ways, people of Moyock and Cayuga. Make me proud voters of Indianapolis and Raleigh. Although a sweep by him won't end this campaign, it will do a damn bit of good in cutting off a potential flank attack by Clinton and her minions.

Help end this charade, and usher in a new age of American citizenship. The people of the "meaningless" states of Virginia, Illinois, Georgia and 28 other contested locales have spoken for their desire for change. Do your part, and make North Carolina and Indiana meaningless as well.

It's Guam's Time to Shine!

Jay Sherman - "I don't think you need to get into the Guam Primary"

Duke Phillips - "Hell, I don't even know what to call 'em. The Guamish? Guammi Bears? Guambats?"

Barack Obama adds another victory to his total with a victory in Guam. Although the margin is close enough that it quite possibly could tip the other way, it will result in a 2/2 split between Senator Obama and Senator Flick...I mean Clinton.

This is just a warm-up to the Basketball Tuesday primaries in North Carolina and Indiana on Tuesday. Don't expect Clinton leaving the race, even if Obama somehow wins both states by 20%. Something tells me this woman might still be running a sad and pathetic campaign the same day Obama takes the oath of office.

Dear Senator Clinton

I know you probably ecstatic about that "big" victory in Pennsylvania. Those 10-15 extra delegates you'll pick up will put you over the top...oh wait, that's right, you are still down over 100 delegates to Obama.

I'm sure you've spent your campaign funds wisely, and are in great shape for heading into the important May 6 campaigns in Indiana and North Carolina.

Wait, what?

Oh you poor thing, I guess I'll have to give you some money. How does $25 sound? Does that sound good?

Great, I'll just go here and donate it.

Please get off the stage. What little respect I have for you as a member of the United States Senate is about ready to evaporate. Please go back to that august chamber, and help the (hopefully) expanded Democratic majority in working with the House and President Obama to fix the mess that President Bush (and you) have played a role in making.


Thanks,

augustprairie

p.s. Please tell your supporters to stop making these videos. They are fake, bland, and uninspiring. In other words, a perfect metaphor for your campaign.

My Pennsylvania Prediction

After no serious research and little mathematical calculation, I am ready to offer my prediction for the big PA primary. Here it goes:

Pennsylvania Democratic Primary:

Senator Hillary Clinton (R-NY): Pct. 56%, 86 delegates
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL): 44%, 72 delegates

I'd love a better result, but a 12% margin isn't that bad. It certainly won't be enough to deny the fact that Obama will most certainly be the Democratic nominee.

Check back in two weeks for North Carolina and Indiana!

Calm down folks

I know that the polls show Obama close to Hillary in Pennsylvania. However, us Obamatards must be sure to keep our expectations low. Despite keeping close in the polls recently, he has yet to rise above the 44%-45% threshold in those polls. Hillary has often been the overwhelming choice of late deciders, and it probably will go the same here. Don't be surprised if he loses by 10, 15, or even 20 points in PA.

In the end, all that matters is who wins that deciding ballot in Denver. And my money is on that tall lanky lawyer from Illinois.

Thoughtful Comments? From a Politician? We don't pay them to Think.

How dare you Senator Obama

That Ivy League elitist Islamoterrocommunoafroterrorist Barack HUSSEIN ObAma has been at it again with his comments that are nuanced, thoughtful, and make some sense. Shame on him, doesn't he know you need to run your campaign like all Americans are moronic and inattentive preschoolers? No good could come of a president who actually treats us like we might be smarter than mildly retarded cats.

Seriously, the thought that a Senator who lives in Chappaqua, New York and a Senator who was the son and grandson of Admirals could call Obama an elitist is laughable. It doesn't look like Hillary is getting much serious play from these comments, and it could quite possibly end up backfiring on her.

Really, a Politician that Treats Us Like Adults?

Silly Senator Obama. Doesn't he understand you can't be nuanced, fair-minded, or intelligent when running for President?

In all seriousness this is a great speech. Senator Obama once again shows that words do matter. Will this stop the Wright bullcrap? Probably not, considering Faux Noise has decided to continue pounding away on the issue. But it certainly reinforced why I am supporting this candidate, and once again showed how unfortunate our nation would be if we screwed up and didn't elect him in November.

Obama raises $55 Million in February

When the February figures for Senator Clinton were leaked last week, her $35 million take was rather impressive. In any other year, those numbers would be considered monumental.

However, that total stands in the shadow of the $55 million the Obama campaign raised. That is almost $1.9 million/day. The amazing part of it is that $45 million of that was raised through the web, a true testament to effectiveness of Obama's grassroots campaign.

I believe that it is ridiculous that our political campaigns have to expend as much money as they do. It creates barriers of entry, and encourages conflicts of interest in our political process. However, one cannot deny that $55 million in one month, especially the shortest month of the year, is a major accomplishment.

Now let's hope this will power Obama to victory in Denver.