On Afghanistan

Honestly, I'm not sure where I stand on Obama's escalation plan in Afghanistan. I am very conflicted about supporting Obama on this. It isn't a surprise to me that this is Obama's plan, just a minor disappointment. Still, the worst part of this is that I'm not sure he had any choice that was better.

Simply put, the options in Afghanistan are a shit-sandwich buffet. Your only solution is to pick the most edible one, and hope it stays down. Is an immediate withdrawl the best? I'm not sure, although I am skeptical of it. I suppose I was hoping for some totally creative and awesome way out of this, but that is the worst kind of wishful thinking.

The fact is, the mess left by the previous administration is huge, and only Democrats seem willing to fix it these days. One of those messes, and arguably the biggest foreign policy mess, is Afghanistan. Had we focused our efforts on stablizing Afghanistan during the better portion of this decade instead of starting a stupid conflict two countries over, Obama most likely would not have had to deliver his speech last night. I recognize the mess we are in, and also understand the appeal and potential benefit of a stable Afghanistan.

However, when I look at Afghanistan, it is very hard to be optimistic about our chances. The forces of history are against us in this land that has stymied many empires. Granted, maybe our focused effort will be different, but I'm not so sure. The terrain, the complexities, and the downright bad feelings just seem to be far too much for me to have much hope for the success of our mission.

Despite the President's arguments to the contrary, I can't help but see the similarities between Afghanistan 2009 and Vietnam 1965. What happens if General McChrystal comes back to President Obama next year with a message that success only needs 30,000 more troops? At what point do we say enough? How can we continue to ask so much of our soldiers without a real sense of results?

What happens if we do our jobs well, but Karzai and his cronies fail miserably? Are we going to pull shit like the CIA did with the coups in South Vietnam? At best, this situation will probably end up like the DMZ in Korea. At worst will have a repeat of Saigon 1975. I hope I am wrong, but I just can't feel optimistic about that.

On top of my misgivings in regards to foreign policy, I also worry about about how this will affect the administrations domestic agenda. We have significant systemic problems that need to be taken care of here at home, and every dollar spent if Afghanistan is one less dollar we can spend on those problems. The Health Care bill is taking an incredibly long time to get through Congress, and what might eventually get passed won't exactly be our nation's greatest triumph. How can we rein in reckless financial behavior, establish a sensible and fair immigration policy, or develop real environmental pro when we are stuck in a money pit halfway around the world?

With all of these considerations in mind, I am willing to cut President Obama some slack. I really think he and his administration is trying to make the best decision possible in a bad situation, and is trying to right the wrongs of the past decade. They deserve time to try this new strategy. I can't deny the people in this administration have more information than I do, and I hope this privileged information is being used properly. If not, there will be hell to pay.

Regardless of how you feel about the decision, you must recognize the brazeness of this decision. It puts the war squarely on Obama's shoulders, and quite possibly could be the defining decision of his Presidency. I hope it will go down as the right decision. For now, I'll give the President my support, while making sure to keep a close eye on the situation. As always, it is our right to change our mind with new information or new circumstances. A stable Afghanistan is good for the world. Hopefully this will be a time for a new path in history.