10. West Virginia
Why it might be important
This state was one of the worst for Obama in the primary, but recent polls have shown a potential for victory here. The very fact Joe Biden is talking about a surprise in the state shows how far McCain has fallen since his post-convention bounce. If this isn't called quickly for McCain (or called early for Obama), expect a wonderful night for the junior senator from Illinois.
Why it might not be so important
Despite some promising polls, the road is probably still far too daunting for Obama to take this state. Although it might not be called immediately at 7:30, it probably will still be called fairly early for Senator McCain.
Direction: Rising
9. Wisconsin
Why it might be important
Despite polls showing the Badger State solidifying for Obama, McCain appears to still feel he has chance in this state. Although its middle of the pack closing time doesn't make it an early indicator, it could still point to the direction in which the night will conclude.
Why it might not be so important
If the polls slide more to Obama's favor, this state will probably move to the likely Obama list, instead of the lean Obama list. With so many indicator states closing before Wisconsin, it very likely will not be a key indicator to the night.
Direction: Falling
8. Missouri
Why it might be important
Missouri is a historical bellwether state. With only 1956 as the exception, Missouri has gone for the winner every year for a long time. For a while this appeared to be a safe McCain state, but Obama has made a push.
Why it might not be so important
McCain is still likely to take the Show-Me State, although excellent GOTV efforts in Kansas City and St. Louis might negate that effect. Like Wisconsin, Missouri is too late to be an early indicator.
Direction: Rising
7. Florida
Why it might be important
Its Florida, and its close. McCain can only win if he takes Florida and Ohio (plus other swing states), and the Sunshine State could be a prime indicator for the election.
Why it might not be so important
Unlike Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004, Obama has a path to victory that doesn't require this state (or Ohio). Getting it would be nice, but losing it wouldn't ruin his night (although it would not be good if Florida was called immediately.
Direction: Stagnant
6. Nevada
Why it might be important
Barring a major surprise in Oregon or Washington, Nevada is the farthest west swing state on the map. Whoever wins this state might find themselves the winner of the whole election. Polls are close here, and it is very possible all eyes will be on the Silver State come election night.
Why it might not be so important
Its late poll closing time will mean that it is very possible the election picture will already be cleared up by the time the results start rolling into Carson City.
Direction: Rising
5. Ohio
Why it might be important
Like Florida, this state is crucial for McCain if he wishes to move into 1600 Pennsylvania. If 2004 was any indicator, expect it to be very early in the morning Wednesday before results come in.
Why it might not be so important
If results don't come in until early on November 5, it is very possible the election could be decided before we know the result. As mentioned with Florida, Obama doesn't necessarily need Ohio to win this year, although we are sure he would love to take home the Buckeye State.Direction: Stagnant
4. Colorado
Why it might be important
Along with the three states above it, Colorado was a state comfortably won by Bush in 2004. However, shifting demographics, changing circumstances, and a much better Democratic ground game have put this state in play. If Obama plays well here, this might be the state that puts him over 270.Why it might not be so important
Like Nevada, Colorado's polls close much later than several of the other potential swing states. Thus, the election might be decided before Colorado can give its results.Direction: Rising
3. North Carolina
Why it might be important
Who would have thought four years ago that the Democrats might have a shot in the Tarheel State? North Carolina closes earlier than many states, and could certainly be a major indicator for the night. Whatever the result, the very fact it is in play has to be a victory for Obama.Why it might not be so important
The polls in Virginia will be closed sooner than the polls here. Thus, it might be Virginia's (or our #1 state) role to play as the early indicator state.Direction: Rising
2. Virginia
Why it might be important
Virginia (along with Maryland and DC) gave Obama a commanding lead in the Democratic primary, and he is doing his best to make sure the Old Dominion goes blue on November 4. If this is called early for McCain, it might be the first ray of sunlight for his campaign. If it is called late (or called early for Obama), expect it to be a long night for the Republicans.
Why it might not be so important
McCain decides to concede the election, making the point moot. Otherwise, the only way Virginia becomes irrelevant is if the results take too long that other states put Obama over the top.Direction: Stagnant
1. Indiana
Why it might be important
Although it is likely McCain will come out with a victory in the Hoosier State, it won't be without a fight. Obama has narrowed the gap here, and it could be an interesting night. Indiana is one of the first states to close, so what happens here could be a prime indicator.
Why it might not be so important
If it takes as long on November 4 to call this state as it did the Democratic primary, Indiana could be irrelevant.Direction: Rising
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