Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Ugh: The 2014 Midterms

So I'm sitting here in a hotel room (so I have cable for the election) sipping whiskey and just generally trying to process the ass-whupping the Democrats took this midterm election. Yep, there's no denying this was a bad defeat. Forget purple states like Iowa, Colorado, and Florida, all of which Democrats lost key Senate or Governor's races. The Democrats lost governor's seats in reliably Democratic Illinois, Massachusetts, and Maryland.

It was a pretty bad night for the men (and women) in blue. The Senate is now in the hands of Mitch McConnell, the Republicans padded their lead in the House, and they continue to control a distressing number of governor's mansions and state legislatures. Of the three stooges (Walker, Scott, and LePage) I was hoping would be shown the door, all three were reelected. Nope, not a fun night.



And yet, there were some bright spots. Ballot measures were much friendlier to traditionally progressive policies, with red states like Nebraska and Arkansas voting to increase their minimum wages. Other states (and D.C.) passed laws that legalized marijuana or tightened gun control, and Illinois passed several measures (some binding, some not) that would be left leaning. It appears that people like Democratic policies, even if they hate Democrats.

So what happened? Well, many things.


  1. Historical Midterm Trends: Let's face it, more years than not the party that holds the White House loses in the midterms. This is even more likely during a President's second term. This is something we've kind of forget in recent years, as 1998 and 2002 bucked those trends. Of course, 1998 was a referendum on Clinton's impeachment, and 2002 was the first post 9-11 election, so special circumstances clearly could be claimed. Add in the fact that so many senate seats were in states that aren't exactly loving the Obama administration, and it's clear things weren't lining up well for the Democrats.
  2. Weak Ass State Democratic Parties: Everyone who wasn't blind could see Pat Quinn was vulnerable. Nobody who had to clean up the mess left by George Ryan and Rod Blagojevich was going to be popular. And despite what some Democrats think, you can't just win the state with only Cook county. 101 of the 102 counties in Illinois went towards Rauner. Durbin, Madigan, and White won fairly easily, so it isn't like the Democrats were completely forbidden in state contests. In Massachusetts, Martha Coakley once again lost an election she should have won. The Democrats in supposedly swing state Ohio barely put up a fight in the state wide elections there, and it's clear Texas is far from being purple, despite the best efforts of Wendy Davis. By far the most underperforming state is Florida. Election after election a state full of Democrats dicks around with subpar candidates, letting criminals like Rick Scott get reelected.
  3. The Midterm turnout problem: This is far from scientific, but I made a note of who mentioned they voted on Facebook. With one or two exceptions, most people in my friends group who posted they voted were conservatives, or at least Republican in nature.Hell, I didn't vote. I had no excuse other than laziness and forgetfulness. The fact is, the conservatives and the olds (who are strongly conservative) always show up. Meanwhile, so many of us on the left, such as the youngs and minorities, are notorious for not showing up in non Presidential years. Until we reverse this trend, midterms are going to be pretty disappointing for us on the left.
  4. Chicken-Shit DLC Triangulation: Grimes was probably going to lose to McConnell in Kentucky no matter what. However, she was not helped by her mealy mouth response about whether or not she voted for the President. Look, I know the President isn't winning too many popularity contests these days. But you know who still has his back? The Democratic base that is notorious for not turning out in midterms. Had she said "I'm a Democrat, so of course I supported my President, even if I don't agree with him on everything" it would have shown the Democratic base in Kentucky that she was a team player. It might have given them some enthusiasm. The idea that Democrats would  run away from a very successful, if troubled, President is a mark of shame.
So where do we go from here? Like or it nor, the 2016 speculation has already begun. On the side of the Democrats sits the presumptive nominee in Hillary Clinton. There are some names bandied about, such as Elizabeth Warren (the darling of the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party"), Mike "No, I'm not Carcetti from The Wire" O'Malley, and Brian Schweitzer. It's unlikely any of those people will do much to dislodge Clinton, assuming she runs. On the GOP side, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker all have clear intentions of entering the race. Chris Christie and Rick Santorum are also around, although Christie's star has faded as of late.

For myself, I'll be going dark for a while again. I've got a big Appalachian Trail hike coming up next year, and my eyes are towards achieving this goal for now. However, once I'm back (about eleven months from now), we'll be taking on 2016 and it's pivotal election. Life will go on, the sun will come up, and there will be another election. Remember this feeling, and let it drive you to victory in 2016.

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